Friday, January 25, 2013

Charting a Path to Succes

Units sold: 15
Amazon Sales Rank: #252,067 in Books

One of my friends picked up the book on the 23rd.  I assume that was the reason for the bump in sales rank of roughly 60,000.  Or maybe 60,000 other books managed to sell negative copies and dropped.  Maybe it is net of returns, but I wouldn't think there would be that many returns of books only selling single copies.  I am going to give Amazon some credit on its analytics and figure that it involves more than just daily sale tallies.  But it won't stop me from trying to creating to terribly non-comprehensive model if it. 

5 books got me to 80k something.  1 book got me an improvement of 60k to 250k.  Crack open Excel.  Create basic table.  Create plot and curve fit with an exponential series.  Solve for y = 1 as equal to Sales Rank #1000, round to get: Answer = 243.  That is not as intimidating as I thought, but still 16x more than I have sold to date.  And when I think of that as a daily rate, it will be a miracle to achieve it. 

Check that R-squared though, you know its true at .9988.  Almost like guessing last week's lottery numbers.     


Units Sold Sales Rank
0 311
1 250
5 83











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